2026 US Open Odds: The Landscape Shifts in New York
Few US Opens have been harder to predict than in 2026. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew, removing a massive obstacle for the 128 players in the field. The world no. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew, leaving the door open for other players to come through. Sinner being out after probably being the firm favorite in New York has definitely opened up the draw a lot.
Court: Laykold. Weather: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 80s to begin the tournament, with rain expected by midweek. Picking a champion on the men’s side for the US Open is far from simple this year. With Jannik Sinner out and Carlos Alcaraz an unknown, the draw feels wide open.
The Jannik Sinner Fallout 2026 & Men’s Outright Favorites
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back but hasn’t played singles in four months. All eyes will be on Carlos Alcaraz as he returns from a wrist injury that has kept him sidelined since Barcelona in April, and despite his absence, he is a warm favourite to successfully defend his Flushing Meadows crown. Reigning Australian Open champion Carlos Alcaraz returns from injury and is 5-2 to claim the men’s title. According to DraftKings Predictions, Alcaraz holds a 32% win probability.
As Jaimee Fourlis noted, “I think if Alcaraz is playing, you have to tip him. Just because he hasn’t played for four months doesn’t mean he doesn’t know how to play”. Former world No.35 and Australian women’s coach lead Nicole Pratt countered: “I feel it will be tough for Carlos to defend the title with no matches for such a long time”.
Alexander Zverev is a top-seed for the first time in his career, and the French Open hero is seen as one of the two most likely to dethrone him by the bookmakers. Alexander Zverev, who claimed a belated first Grand Slam title at the French Open and was a runner-up at Wimbledon, would be the obvious alternative. Zverev holds a 23% win probability, though he comes in as the top seed and is just 2-2 since Wimbledon.
Novak Djokovic continues his quest for 25. Novak Djokovic is 95-15 for his career at the US Open and remains one of the most dangerous longshots in the field. With 24 Grand Slam singles titles already on his resume, the 39-year-old Serb is in position to find himself alone at the top if he can finish first here, as a win would break the tie for most majors that he currently shares with Australia’s Margaret Court. He holds an 11% outright probability. The 39-year-old legend’s draw is manageable through the quarterfinals, where Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, and Brandon Nakashima are the main threats.
US Open Men’s Outright Winner Picks: The American Contenders
The past few US Opens have produced exciting runs from at least one American man. Five Americans are currently ranked within the Top 20. The Americans bring a volume of contenders from Ben Shelton to Taylor Fritz, to Frances Tiafoe to Tommy Paul and Brandon Nakashima.
It’s been the summer of Nak in 2026. World No. 17 Brandon Nakashima has burst onto the scene over the last two months. Brandon Nakashima had never made a Masters 1000 quarterfinal. He went on to make the final of Montreal and the semifinals of Cincinnati. Nakashima is flourishing in his new coaching partnership with Wayne Ferreira. Wally Masur advised, “Don’t discount someone like Nakashima. I’m not saying he’s going to win the event, but don’t discount that sort of confidence going into the Open, and he might push deep”.
For Taylor Fritz, he is a 12-1 general chance. Home favourite Taylor Fritz acts as the each-way value in the top half of the draw. Frances Tiafoe heads to Flushing Meadows on the back of a final appearance in Cincinnati and is 13-2 to win the third quarter.
Arthur Fils is arguably a top-five player in the world, and he’s in the midst of proving exactly why. Fils just won his first Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, crushing Tiafoe 6-3 1-6 6-0. His serve is a weapon (94.3% holds), paired with athleticism and a heavy forehand. He’s 10-0 in deciding sets this year and 8-0 against Americans. His 76.2% win rate ranks fourth on Tour, and his 22 hardcourt wins lead the entire Tour.
Tirante is in the best form of his professional career after beginning the season outside the top 100. He’s coming off his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Cincinnati and a fourth-round showing in Toronto. He’s proven he can show up in big situations, with wins over #3 Novak Djokovic, #7 Taylor Fritz, and #14 Jakub Mensik.
Coco Gauff vs Iga Swiatek Odds and Women’s Outright Favorites
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite at 24%. Aryna Sabalenka has won the title in her past two visits to New York but hasn’t reached a final since March. “She does play very well in New York. We’re moving on to her best surface. I think with Sabalenka, sometimes you need to simplify things,” said Casey Dellacqua. Pratt noted: “She needs to rein it in, play with more consistency and not feel like she needs to play in fifth gear from the first ball hit”.
Coco Gauff sits at 16% probability, passing Iga Swiatek at 15%. Gauff’s return game remains the separator, and with a 48.0% return-points-won rate on hard courts, she has the profile and current form to win again in New York. “Thinking of where she was at 12 months ago, in tears, struggling on serve, all of that, I just think Coco Gauff has been a real standout,” Dellacqua said.
Elena Rybakina could overtake her at world No.1 but enters under an injury cloud. Jessica Pegula sits at an 8% probability, alongside Naomi Osaka at 7% and Mirra Andreeva at 6%.
US Open Picks Today: Day 1 Best Bets & Matchup Predictions
Novak Djokovic, Venus Williams and Daniil Medvedev all look to take a successful first step on this first day of action. They’ll be joined by a serious slate of talent that also includes Jessica Pegula, Karolina Pliskova, Tommy Paul, Leylah Fernandez, Barbora Krejcikova, and Elina Svitolina.
Carlos Alcaraz US Open Odds & Safiullin Upset Potential
An opening showdown with Roman Safiullin, who made the last 16 at Wimbledon, is a tricky starting point. Alcaraz’s first singles match in nearly five months comes against Roman Safiullin, a player who has already beaten him and is trading at just 20%. The US Open is known for big upsets, and none would be bigger than Roman Safiullin trading at 20% to beat No. 2, Carlos Alcaraz. Safiullin has been inconsistent, but his ceiling is undeniable.
Arthur Fils vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction Context
Hurkacz has been to the second week of majors before; he knows what it takes, and his game is perfectly suited to the fast hard courts of Flushing Meadows where that serve becomes even more of a weapon. Throughout the season, Alex de Minaur’s characteristic consistency has slowly been breaking down, and he is the most vulnerable top seed at the US Open. There are some obvious choices here in Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev. But while their early losses would be a seeding upset, given their form and confidence, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking.
US Open Best Bets: Jessica Pegula vs Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Pegula, the No. 3 seed, is the top-ranked American woman on the WTA Tour. A semifinalist at the Aussie Open to kick off the year, Pegula has won two tournament titles in 2026. Her 23-9 career mark at the US Open is her best at any of the Big Four. She’ll look to notch her first today as she faces off with Elena-Gabriela Ruse of Romania. The 28-year-old’s best Slam showing this season was a third-round finish in Melbourne. That matches her best-ever run here in Flushing, where she reached the third round in 2024, upsetting two-time major titlist Krejcikova en route.
Novak Djokovic vs Mariano Navone
The four-time US Open champ will need to focus on Mariano Navone, a 25-year-old Argentine who’s competing in his third career US Open main draw. A second-round finish here in 2024 is Navone’s best US Open showing, but the Argentine did win his first career singles crown this spring on clay in Bucharest. This first career meeting between the two doesn’t figure to be a lengthy one. A 25-year-old up against a guy looking for a 25th major. Sometimes, the numbers do matter. In three, Djokovic moves ahead; one step closer to history.
Women’s Day 1 Value Picks
On the women’s side, 16-year-old Kristina Liutova enters on a nine-match winning streak and looks undervalued at 36% against a struggling Qinwen Zheng. Liutova has nothing to lose, plenty of confidence, and enough current form to make a 36% share look seriously underpriced.
Sources: Covers.com, Racing Post, USOpen.org, Last Word on Sports, and AusOpen.com, featuring analysis by experts like Casey Dellacqua, Nicole Pratt, and Wally Masur.
